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Against the backdrop of the immense confusion following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a truly chilling precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning marked its first major military attack on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.

The choice to militarily strike another state and capture its head of state – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

It is widely rejected the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.