🔗 Share this article

Initially, the former US president gave the impression to embrace a firm position concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing statements of "severe ramifications" last August if Russia's president continued obstructing truce negotiations, the former president ultimately introduced considerable sanctions on Russia's primary oil companies, these major energy companies. This decision substantially hindered Putin's capacity to finance his aggression in the region.

Yet, through his latest 28-point peace plan for the conflict, which was drafted by American and Russian officials excluding Ukrainian or European participation, Trump has apparently reverted to his pro-Putin position.

Favoring Military Action

Trump's proposal would in practice reward the Russian leader for invading Ukraine while leaving the country's political freedom in peril. Although ringing statements that "Ukraine's independence will be affirmed", large portions of the plan effectively compromise that essential autonomy. Seen as a Moscow's wish would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his real-estate background, Trump continues to treat the war as a mere land disagreement, as if handing Putin a part of Ukrainian territory will appease the president. Yet, Putin's invasion is not only about controlling a charred swath of deindustrialized territory in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about the nation's democratic governance – and Putin's apparent desire to destroy it so it ceases to acts as an appealing model for the Russian citizens of the responsible government that Putin's growing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Territorial Giveaways

Although freezing in position the currently separated Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's plan would require Ukraine to abandon the whole Donetsk province. In addition to favoring the Russian Federation with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to occupy in more than a lengthy period of fighting, this concession would leave Ukrainian defenses critically weakened.

The area is the site of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the entrenched military defenses that constitute a critical impediment to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine leave these positions, providing Putin a clear path to Kyiv if he eventually opt to restart the hostilities.

Military Restrictions

Then, in a action that would make future conflict easier for the Russian military, the plan would force the nation to diminish the numbers of its troops from their existing large number soldiers to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Significantly, the plan sets no similar restrictions on Russian forces.

Apparently as a accommodation to Putin's efforts to characterize the nation's legitimate government as Nazis, the plan declares: "All extremist doctrine and activities must be condemned and banned." As if to emphasize this aspect, it requires that "The nation will hold political contests in three months" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal places no obligation that Putin endanger his regime by holding democratic processes in Russia.

Protection Commitments

Certainly, the proposal has the Russian Federation commit not to "invade bordering nations" and to "incorporate in law its position of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". But considering that the Russian leadership has violated similar accords in the previous instances – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government promised to recognize the nation's borders in return for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow agreed to a ceasefire and a return of captured territory in eastern Ukraine to the government – for what reason should the international community believe Putin this time?

This explains Ukraine has been so determined on international protection assurances. While the initiative warns of a "immediate joint armed reaction" in case Russia resume its aggression, and includes that "Ukraine will receive dependable defense commitments", the particulars vary from unclear to alarming. The plan would not just deny Ukraine Nato membership but also prevent Nato members from deploying forces on Ukraine's soil, thus preventing the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively led by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Russia from restoring his reduced military, re-equipping, and attacking again.

International Concern

An additional side agreement according to sources would provide Ukraine with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any subsequent "major, planned, and sustained armed attack" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an attack jeopardizing the tranquility of the transatlantic community." That suggests a defense action. Yet unlike a strong national defense – Ukraine's most reliable protection against renewed Russian aggression – the credibility of the side agreement would hinge on the dedication of alliance members, like the US administration, to respond militarily to Putin's attacks, an action they have {not