Moving from Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.
A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. Within a day, the foreign force declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.
That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.
Official Outrage and Private Thoughts
In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.
“The operation was carried out competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for this long.”
Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.
Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.
Allies in Decline
For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a new axis able to challenge Washington.
However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.
Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.
“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”
Focus on the Main Front
Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.
“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.
Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks
Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.
Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.
Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.
A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.
“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”
A Dark Optimism
Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.
“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”