Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent Under the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Statistics
The average figure of daily killings monthly in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by recent official data. But, security analysts have advised that homicide figures could fail to signal better countrywide safety.
Notable Reduction in Daily Numbers
Officials reported an mean of almost 55 homicides a day in the month of November as opposed to nearly 87 when the President took the presidential office in September. This announcement was delivered by the chief of the nation's national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.
“The result in homicides that have been recorded during these past months is remarkably significant,” Sheinbaum stated, adding that the previous month the least amount of homicides were documented for any November in the past 10 years.
Historical Context and Government Plan
Violent cartel rivalries, coupled with the administration's heavily military efforts to confront the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in the past few years. The rate hit a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics office.
That resulted in Mexico a murder figure over four times higher than the US. From that point, killings have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety plan for an apparently steeper decline in homicides this year.
At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader declared: “We have a plan, we have tracking of the plan, and there is specific monitoring town by town in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to keep working at it every day.”
The main pillars of the President's safety strategy encompass:
- Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
- Improving information gathering and investigative work.
- Greater collaboration between government departments.
Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Limitations
However, security analysts warned that using homicide statistics to draw a conclusion of pacification was misleading. This is notably true considering the rise in other crimes such as people going missing.
“That would be positive news if this was a drop, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide data and think: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”
According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical timeframe last year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have increased by as much as 200%.
“Numbers on murders is no longer reliable for assessing the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the resources or the desire to properly recognize and categorize remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through abductions.”
Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of daily killings was also an issue because it may mask days when there were especially high levels of murders.
“Using the daily average renders spikes of violent crime less visible,” he concluded.
Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Progress
An area where the government can highlight the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and November 2025 for major offenses, according to government data. Over 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.
“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely politically beneficial,” stated Vargas.
Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger
However in spite of these measures, Mexico remains plagued by severe bloodshed, with several regions in the midst of cartel-related violence. Recently there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the past 12 months.
A short time after, thousands of youth protested in the capital and throughout the nation to express their frustration at graft and cartel violence.
“The federal government shares [data] in a way to construct a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” the analyst remarked.